Virginia HOT Lanes: For Insiders Only

The new I-495 HOT lanes, also known as 495 Express Lanes, are expected to go into operation late this year.  Discussion of these lanes and the concept of dynamic pricing can be found in many places on the web (official site,  a previous post of mine re: the theory of HOT lanes).

My particular concern for this post is the requirement that all users must have an E-ZPass in order to use the lanes.  What this means is that only local drivers with knowledge of the system and those who are willing to bear the monthly admin charge will be able to utilize the lanes. Thus, in order to use the HOT lanes for free one must:

• Have 3+ persons in their vehicle, AND
• Have an active monthly E-ZPass Flex Account, AND
• Make sure the Flex pass is set to HOV mode

How Much Congestion does the Clean Fuel Exemption Cause on I-66 Inside the Beltway?

Hybrids and other clean-fuel cars are exempted from the HOV requirement on I-66.  All traffic inside the beltway on I-66 must be HOV-2, be a motorcycle or have a clean fuel exemption license plate.  Dr. Gridlock at the Washington Post has argued to remove this exemption to help the HOV lanes function better.  It has been my opinion that the problem was caused more by scofflaws--that is, single occupancy drivers illegally on the road--than the hybrid cars.

Today I had a chance to test my presumption.  I was crossing over I-66 on the pedestrian overpass near Madison Manor park (map).  I tried to notice how many cars were scofflaws but soon realized that it was difficult to tell if there was a child in the back seat or not.  Also, many of the cars had the clean-car license plates.  Then I realized I could read the license plates easily.  Traffic seemed to be traveling about 30-40 miles per hour, slower than free-flowing.  So one could argue that there was congestion, since the HOV lanes were not moving at 55 miles per hour.  So I started counting.

Plates with CF, CX, CY or CZ are exempt from the HOV requirement.  (One can have their vanity plate exempted, too, but there were few of these).  I pulled out a piece of paper and a pen.  Here's what I observed in six minutes from 8:04 to 8:10 AM.

• 333 cars: 67 with clean-car license plates; 266 without.
• 1 motorcycle
• 2 buses
• 1 18-wheeler (which are illegal on this highway)
• 1 eastbound 6-car Metro train

Of the cars, 67 had clean car license plates, approximately 20%. 

Here's some quick math extrapolating to an hour and making some assumptions:

• 2700 HOV cars with 2.2 riders = 6000 people
• 670 clean-fuel cars with 1.1 riders = 750 people
• 20 buses with 40 people = 2000 people
• 10 metro trains with 800 riders = 8000 people

So the clean-fuel cars represent less than 5% of the people being transported along this corridor but represent 20% of the cars.  Would removing that 20% increase flow enough or more than enough to make up the difference.  My intuition says yes, but perhaps a transportation planner can weigh in on the comments.

HOT Lanes Won't Siphon Off Riders

I noticed an article in the Fredericksburg Free Lance-Star reporting on a VDOT report about future commuting behavior along I-95 when HOT lanes are completed. I was unable to find the report results on VDOT's site, so I have to depend on the Free Lance-Star for what details I could glean.

The gist of the survey results is that the vast majority of vanpoolers, carpoolers, sluggers and train riders will continue to use their same mode to commute along the I-95/I-395 corridor after HOT lanes are built and implemented. In fact, the type of commuter most likely to change their behavior is the SOV driver, presumably to another, more congestion- and environment-friendly mode. For people who are concerned that the construction of HOT lanes would siphon a lot of riders out of HOV modes into their SOV vehicles, this is a heartening result.

The survey polled 3,289 commuters. Here's how many said they would will stick with their current method of commuting:

95 percent of vanpoolers
91 percent of bus riders
86 percent of train riders
82 percent slugs
81 percent of carpoolers
53 percent of solo drivers

HOT Lanes Getting Started Up

Today's Washington Post article announcing that work on the N. Virginia HOT lanes will start up early next year is bound to create a lot of "traffic" here, on other blogs and in forums of all types. I think it's great that so many people are really thinking about how to deal with the undeniable problem of traffic congestion in the DC area. And clearly there are differing opinions, which--at least here on the CommuterPage blog--I hope we can express with mutual respect and thoughtfulness.

Problems with traffic congestion are not unique to Washington. One of the great things about our big ol' US of A is that we are big; we have 50 states; we have scores of metropolitan areas. What that means is that we can try different things in different places and learn from those experiences. I'm sure that other metro areas will be watching to see what happens here. "But I don't wanna be the guinea pig," I can hear from some. That's NIMBYism writ large: put it somewhere else; let someone else try it first; make them pay for it. . . .Take that attitude universal and nothing ever happens anywhere at all.

Is this model perfect? I doubt it. Should we allow private ownership of a public good? There's definitely some validity to that point. Will the new HOT lanes be completely fair for all users? It's impossible to be completely fair (and definitions of fair are not even consistent). Will the money get inappropriately used, politicized or even wasted somehow? Um. . .this is DC. Do we need to do something? Absolutely.

I'm excited to see our leaders taking action on something innovative and even controversial with the potential for some real gains. If only they would take a similar attitude towards the tunnel in Tyson's corner--bold and innovative instead of trapped in a bureaucratic morass. Maybe that's the real lesson of these HOT lanes. Look how fast they went from crazy idea to implementation. And how long have we been pursuing that rail line?

The Air We Breathe

Sunday's Washington Post Commuter Page (Page 2 in the Metro section) had a nice discussion of air quality. I have not been able to find it online; evidently it is only in the print edition.

The most striking visual on the page was a graph that showed the comparative emissions across several types of vehicles. Here are the numbers from the table but without the visual impact of the chart:

Nitrogen Oxide Emissions in grams/mile:
Light-duty hybrid (Prius, Civic hybrid) 0.02
Passenger car (Camry, Accord, Malibu) 0.10
Light-duty truck 2 (Cherokee, Caravan, Sienna) 0.30
Light-duty truck 4 (F-150, Sequoia, Land Rover) 0.60
Heavy-duty truck (Hummer, RVs) 0.90

That means it would take 5 carpoolers in a regular passenger car before the emissions would be equal to 5 Priuses or 15 passengers in a minivan to equal 15 Civic hybrids. A big SUV emits 30 times as much ozone-causing pollution per mile than a hybrid! A Hummer 45 times as much!

This table makes it clear that increasing the fleet of hybrid vehicles in our area, particularly if they are replacing other vehicles, would make a big dent in our air quality problems. In fact, DC is doing well with hybrid ownership, double the national average (link). Much of this has been driven by the HOV exemption for clean vehicles, prompting some drivers to invest in hybrids in order to be able to drive on the HOV lanes. This year, also, Arlington County has introduced a tax break for people to buy hybrid vehicles.

These seem like good policies as we strive to improve regional air quality. There has been controversy about whether the clean-vehicle exemption for HOV should be terminated. I think this information supports the position to keep it in place, since 3 single-occupant Priuses only emit 60% or less emissions than a car (or worse, an SUV or minivan) with three passengers. Some parties believe the exemption should end, because too many single-occupant vehicles will clog the carpool lanes. I will only be convinced after much more aggressive efforts, including much higher fines, are taken to eliminate the HOV violators, who I see all the time on I-66.

Keep in mind that owners of these vehicles are contributing to better air quality with 100% of the miles they drive, even though only 15% - 50% of their driving might be on HOV lanes, so it is in the interest of all who want cleaner air to encourage more purchasing of cleaner cars.

(In the interest of disclosure, I own a Toyota Camry hybrid, but do not have the requisite license plates to drive in the HOV lanes. I also have a personal interest in improving air quality, because my daughter suffers from asthma.)

Airport Story (A HOT Allegory)

Recently I was flying back to DC and had this conversation with my seatmate:
Me: Hi; I'm Steve.
Him: Pleased to meet you; I'm James.
Me: This looks bad. I see about eight planes ahead of us for takeoff. It'll probably take 20 minutes just to get off the ground.
Him: No kidding. I've noticed this is common on Thursdays.
Me: I see that this airport has two parallel takeoff runways to handle more traffic. That seems like a good idea.
(We observe a plane taxi onto the parallel runway and take off without waiting)
Me: Hey! Why didn't that plane have to get in line? Some congressman on board I presume.
Him: (chuckling) Possibly! Actually, I'm from here, and they have some interesting restrictions they've put in place for that runway.
Me: Really? Like what?
Him: Well, the other runway is reserved just for planes with certain fuel efficiency and load factors. There's never a wait on that runway like we have on this one.
Me: That's not a bad idea. I presume it would encourage airlines to improve their fleets and their operational efficiency if they know they can improve their on-time performance by not having to wait in line.
(A plane in our line takes off.)
Him: True. But it seems sort of silly right now with us waiting behind seven more planes while that runway is just waiting to be used.
Me: Well, how much does it get used?
Him: Some of the time it gets good use, but there's also some unused waiting time like now, too.
(Five minutes go by; two more planes ahead of us take off.)
Him: I often wonder why don't they let some of the planes in our queue use that runway when there are gaps like now?
Me: Yeah, like us! Wouldn't it be great if our pilot just cut out of line and took off. I'm getting a little tired of waiting.
(Another plane in our line takes off.)
Him: In fairness, maybe they could come up with a system. Airlines that paid an extra fee could get first priority to use the empty takeoff slots. Airlines that want to improve their on-time performance could pay the extra; those that don't care so much could use this one.
Me: That doesn't seem fair somehow. People with more money get some special treatment or something?
Him: I don't know. If I want to pay an extra $10 for my ticket to have a better chance of getting where I'm going on time, I might do that--particularly if I'm trying to get to an important meeting. Can you think of another way?
Me: How about planes with passengers who have names that start with "S?" I'd like that!
(Another plane ahead of us takes off. Line is down to four.)
Him: "S" or "J!"
Me: Wouldn't every airline just start paying the fee, and then that runway would be just as crowded as this one and there would be no incentive for the airlines to improve performance?
Him: Air traffic control could make sure that the taxiway for that runway has no line, so any of the preferred planes would be able to take off without delay, just like now. And obviously they still get to use that one for free. It wouldn't take long to figure out the prices to charge to control the traffic flow on that runway.
(Another plane in our queue takes off.)
Him: And, you know, our line would be shorter now, too, if a couple of planes ahead of us had been able to use that runway over there. Whatever the system, though, what we're doing right now--making everybody wait while that runway is not being used--is stupid.
Me: No kidding. Everyone would get where they're going faster. Hey! I just remembered; I'm an environmentalist. It would sure save some jet fuel if these planes weren't just sitting in this queue waiting to take off.
Him: Another good point.
(Another plane taxis onto the parallel runway and takes off without delay.)
Me: Good thing I've got my book with me. I guess I'll get an extra chapter or two read today.

Him: Enjoy.
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(this is a fictional story intended to make an analogy about the value of HOT lanes)