Day Five: Everything You Need to Know About Global Warming in Thirteen Days

"5) Skeptics argue that the wide range of uncertainty about future temperature changes lowers the need to act: “Why spend money when you’re not certain?” But since the penalties can rise at an accelerating rate at the tail, a wider range implies a greater risk (and a greater expected value of the costs.) This is logically and mathematically rigorous and yet is still argued."

Most debate over human-caused climate change centers around the science.  But most of us are not equipped to discuss the details of the science.  The question should really center around the idea of risk management, which is what Mr. Grantham is getting at above.  Here is the best way of thinking about the question from that perspective that I have seen to date.




[This one of a series of daily posts I am drawing from Jeremy Grantham's Summer 2010 Investment letter.  Mr. Grantham is on the Board of Directors of GMO LLC, a global investment firm with over $100 billion under management.  Mr. Grantham takes a large, worldview perspective on investments--with an eye toward long-term trends.  He is right-on about the impact of global warming.]

Day Four: Everything You Need to Know About Global Warming in Thirteen Days

"4) The uncertainties arise when it comes to the interaction between greenhouse gases and other factors in the complicated climate system. It is impossible to be sure exactly how quickly or how much the temperature will rise. But, the past can be measured. The temperature has indeed steadily risen over the past century while greenhouse gas levels have increased. But the forecasts still range very widely for what will happen in the future, ranging from a small but still potentially harmful rise of 1 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit to a potentially disastrous level of +6 to +10 degrees Fahrenheit within this century.

A warmer atmosphere melts glaciers and ice sheets, and causes global sea levels to rise. A warmer atmosphere also contains more energy and holds more water, changing the global occurrences of storms, floods, and other extreme weather events."

Most of the scientists now agree that the low end of the range Mr. Grantham suggests here is unlikely and that the high end is more likely.  The biggest question mark is not the physics and chemistry, though: it's sociology.  So much depends on if we humans can slow emissions enough to stop concentrations at 450 ppm or 560 ppm (double pre-industrial levels) or if we end up with concentrations closer to 1000 ppm.  Right now, the odds of slowing and reversing emissions fast enough or significantly enough seems small.  The human factor, then, is the most important variable that will effect the eventual amount of climate change humans will experience--not the science.  The science, in  fact, keeps getting more and more dire.

[This one of a series of daily posts I am drawing from Jeremy Grantham's Summer 2010 Investment letter.  Mr. Grantham is on the Board of Directors of GMO LLC, a global investment firm with over $100 billion under management.  Mr. Grantham takes a large, worldview perspective on investments--with an eye toward long-term trends.  He is right-on about the impact of global warming.]

Day Three: Everything You Need to Know About Global Warming in Thirteen Days

"3) Several other factors, like changes in solar output, have major influences on climate over millennia, but these effects have been observed and measured. They alone cannot explain the rise in the global temperature over the past 50 years."

As many others have debunked (see climate.org for instance), solar activity cannot explain the rise in temperatures that have been experienced over the last one hundred years.  Especially lately, because temperatures are setting new high records while solar activity has been at historic lows.  Nor can any other non-human factor.  The only way to explain the rise in temperatures that has been experienced is through the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations from the emissions from us humans.


[This one of a series of daily posts I am drawing from Jeremy Grantham's Summer 2010 Investment letter.  Mr. Grantham is on the Board of Directors of GMO LLC, a global investment firm with over $100 billion under management.  Mr. Grantham takes a large, worldview perspective on investments--with an eye toward long-term trends.  He is right-on about the impact of global warming.]

Day Two: Everything You Need to Know About Global Warming in Thirteen Days

"2) One of the properties of CO2 is that it creates a greenhouse effect and, all other things being equal, an increase in its concentration in the atmosphere causes the Earth’s temperature to rise. This is just physics. (The amount of other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as methane, has also risen steeply since industrialization, which has added to the impact of higher CO2 levels.)"

I like this statement, because it is just so simple.  CO2 holds heat.  Here's a simple experiment showing that very effect:



More CO2; more heat.  Simple.  We humans are adding many millions of tons of CO2 to our atmosphere each day, so it's not a hard stretch to expect that eventually our world would retain more heat.  Which it has.  It's about 1 degree Celsius warmer now than at the beginning of the twentieth century.

[This one of a series of daily posts I am drawing from Jeremy Grantham's Summer 2010 Investment letter.  Mr. Grantham is on the Board of Directors of GMO LLC, a global investment firm with over $100 billion under management.  Mr. Grantham takes a large, worldview perspective on investments--with an eye toward long-term trends.  He is right-on about the impact of global warming.]

Day One: Everything You Need to Know About Global Warming in 13 Days

"1) The amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, after at least several hundred thousand years of remaining within a constant range, started to rise with the advent of the Industrial Revolution. It has increased by almost 40% and is rising each year. This is certain and straightforward."

[This is the first in a series of daily posts I am drawing from Jeremy Grantham's Summer 2010 Investment letter.  Mr. Grantham is on the Board of Directors of GMO LLC, a global investment firm with over $100 billion under management.  Mr. Grantham takes a large, worldview perspective on investments--with an eye toward long-term trends.  He is right-on about the impact of global warming.

In his summer newsletter he wrote an essay called Everything You Need to Know About Global Warming in Five Minutes.  He made thirteen bullet points.  I will reprint each bullet point one per day (see above) and comment on it.  Enjoy.]
No one debates the rise in CO2--even the harshest skeptics.  The Keeling Curve is probably the most well known graphic regarding global warming.Current CO2 atmospheric concentrations are above 390 parts per million.  Pre-industrial levels were approximately 280 parts per million.

Mr. Grantham's point that it is rising each year is correct.  What is more concerning, however, is that the rate of increase is also increasing--that is, the rise in concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is accelerating.

Monday What's on the Web: Energy Star

Every Monday I highlight other bloggers or web contributors who are making important or interesting contributions to climate, sustainability, transportation or market transformation. Check back each week for another installment.
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Well here's an oldie but goodie: the Energy Star website.  Proud disclosure: I worked on EPA's Energy Star programs from 1994 to 2000 (click my Bio link to the right for more about me).

The EPA Energy Star is undoubtedly the most successful non-regulatory environmental program in the agency's history, and brand recognition of the Energy Star label is above 70%.

Well, that's a nice encomium, but how about the web resources?  One nice thing about Energy Star is that all the information is free and unbiased.  There are resources for everyone from renters of studio apartments to owners of vast portfolios of buildings.  The Energy Star Portfolio Manager benchmarking tool has become an industry standard and is now a required part of achieving certain LEED certifications.  Energy Star provides an enormous number of tools and resources that provide real value for saving energy and money.

The site is relatively simple--perhaps even boring in the new world of flash videos, pop-up screens and other features.  But the information is top notch.

If you have never visited the Energy Star website before, do it now.  There is surely something there that you will find useful, will help you save energy, reduce your carbon footprint and probably save you money, too.

Blue Line Reroute - Deja Vu 30 Months Later

Brownline[1]


(Since I posted this, a better solution with more comments has appeared on Greater Greater Washington.  Check it out.)

Dr. Gridlock in the Washington Post, discussed today the potential rerouting of some metro trains across the Yellow Line bridge over the Potomac rather than through the Rosslyn tunnel.  Old news.  Virtually the same article was written by Lena Sun in February 2008.  Same question: should they make a new color?  Yes, of course, as I blogged here over two years ago .  (For more on how we name routes, check out my blog post on that here.)

There appears to be a pattern.  The same problems just keep plaguing Metro.  I've been reading about the escalator problems (and experiencing them personally) for more than a decade--along with this passenger who writes in today's post. Robert Thompson (Dr. Gridlock) replied thus:

"The current generation at the transit authority includes some pretty smart people. The consequences of the escalator design have been widely known and discussed since the 1990s. Is it not reasonable to
expect that these smart people would be well on their way to solving the problems they inherited?  Instead, the transit authority remains far better at articulating the problems than at solving them
."

Likewise with the invisible tunnel.

If the rerouting of the trains across the Potomac instead of under it is a good idea, then quit talking about it and do it.  Yes, deciding what to call it is an issue, but surely that is not what is keeping it from being implemented.


(cross posted on CommuterPage)

Arlington's Army Navy Country Club Shows Support for Bike Connection

Today's Washington Post printed a letter from Edward A. Urben, the General Manager and CEO of the Army Navy Country Club in South Arlington.  This letter shows support for the County's request to obtain an easement that will allow bike/ped access from Arlington View neighborhood, under I-395, to Pentagon City.  This is a long-sought connection.  Please also see this related post from a few weeks ago, urging cyclists and others to support this connection.

View Hoffman Boston I-395 bike/ped connector in a larger map

Monday What's on the Web: Blue Marble from Mother Jones

Every Monday I highlight other bloggers or web contributors who are making important or interesting contributions to climate, sustainability, transportation or market transformation. Check back each week for another installment.
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Mother Jones's blog site includes a tab called "Blue Marble," which focuses on environmental issues. Begun in 2006, but picking up steam later, it now includes about 2 posts a day--many of them recently by Kate Sheppard (worth following on Twitter, by the way), who has been reporting on the BP Gulf disaster of late. Recent posts include:

High Speed Rail in Spain

Sorry for the lag in postings the last couple of weeks.  I was away on vacation in Spain.

I had the distinct pleasure of taking three trips on the AVE high-speed rail network.  The first leg I took was the express non-stop Madrid to Barcelona.  It makes the 386 mile trip in 2 hours and 38 minutes at an average speed of almost 150 miles per hour.

Spain (and Europe in general--not to mention China) continues to invest heavily in expanding its high-speed rail network, while the US cannot seem to get a single effective line built in this decade.  It's a sad indicator, in my opinion, of the decline of US leadership in the world.

Monday What's on the Web: Bike Snob NYC

Every Monday I highlight other bloggers or web contributors who are making important or interesting contributions to climate, sustainability, transportation or market transformation. Check back each week for another installment.
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This week's blogger is somewhat off topic (although it does involve cycling), but I can't resist introducing people to one of my favorite blogs of all: Bike Snob NYC
The Bike Snob can be acerbic and is very sarcastic and satirical, but all in all, wicked funny. He's probably funnier to people who are familiar with biking culture, but there's plenty to enjoy for all--even if you're not in New York.

Warning: overly sensitive people might be offended by some content.